Three main trends will determine the development of the global economy in the next ten years. Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russian presidential aide Maxim Oreshkin described them.

According to Oreshkin, the 2020 recession led to a number of very important structural changes in the global economy.

"The global economy is expected to grow by 6% already this year. No one last year expected a rapid pace of recovery. This is the result of the response that economic authorities around the world gave to the crisis. If during the crisis of 2008-2009 the main emphasis was placed on monetary policy, now the role of governments and the role of budgets in the world has increased significantly. It seems to me that this is a global trend for the whole third decade: accent in macroeconomic policy will shift to governments and budgets," the presidential aide said.

Investors used to watch as central banks changed interest rates, but the situation has already started to change, he said.

"I think in 5-7 years, investors will be watching what budget deficits there are and what programs are announced. We have already seen this in America - the discussion about the size of the stimulus package," Oreshkin reminded.

The second trend named by the presidential aide is social inequality.

"Last year's crisis led to a widening of inequality, both between and within countries. Now globally the world, especially developed countries, are passing the peak of inequality, so there will be a serious left bias in economic policy. We will see more social spending, environmental spending, infrastructure spending. On the other side of the equation, we will see higher taxes on the rich and higher corporate taxes," he believes.

"The third story is not just the explosive growth of online, the explosive growth of the role of ecosystems in the global economy," Oreshkin said.

He explained that the structure and principles of the global economy are already changing. "If previously we had a sectoral economy built around the product, now the economy is starting to be built around the consumer and his needs. Over the next decade we will be moving in these directions," he concluded.

St. Petersburg International Economic Forum is taking place from June 2 to 5. This year the subject is "Together Again. Economy of the New Reality". The event is organized by Roscongress Foundation.

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Author: Maria Buzanakova