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Staying ahead of the EU: Russia has drafted a low-carbon strategy until 2050

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Staying ahead of the EU: Russia has drafted a low-carbon strategy until 2050

The Ministry of Economic Development has prepared an updated draft strategy for low-carbon development in Russia until 2050. According to the instructions of the President Vladimir Putin, it provides more ambitious targets for reducing emissions than in the European Union (EU), writes RBC.

According to the publication, in the baseline scenario of low-carbon development of Russia, adopted as the main, the volume of net greenhouse gas emissions, mainly carbon dioxide, will be reduced to 1.19 billion tons by 2050. According to the latest data for 2019, the country's cumulative emissions were 2.12 billion tonnes CO2-equivalent without considering greenhouse gas uptake by forests and 1.58 billion tonnes including uptake.

According to the strategy, such a pace may result in accumulated net greenhouse gas emissions in Russia by 2050 being lower than in the EU. By that time Europe has set a target to achieve zero net emissions, i.e. carbon neutrality. The EU now has a higher emissions base, with 3.8 billion tonnes at the end of 2019.

It is assumed that Russia will achieve "low-carbon" in the economic growth by reducing emissions from fuel combustion - during electricity production (by 300 million tons), leaking and evaporation of oil, gas and coal (by 190 million tons), as well as the burning of fuel by households and housing and communal services (120 million tons). But the biggest effect, according to the government, should be an increase in the absorption of greenhouse gases in land use and forestry. If the current absorption rate removes just over 500 million tons of CO2 equivalent, the baseline scenario assumes a doubling of harmful gas absorption by forests, to 1.1 billion tons.

The strategy describes several scenarios. The intensive scenario would require massive investment in the decarbonization of industries, which is estimated at 4% of Russian GDP (compared to 1.5% of GDP in the baseline scenario). This approach implies the introduction of a "carbon fee" - a mandatory emission fee, quotas - "in some of the most carbon-intensive industries". The draft strategy notes that such a scenario is possible if foreign investment in the Russian economy grows. Another "intensive" option is application of carbon dioxide capture technology.

The aggressive scenario implies even more rapid decarbonisation, but also more significant risks to the sustainability and stability of the economy.

In the Ministry of Economic Development note that the entry of the Russian economy on a low-carbon development trajectory may entail significant structural shifts, "associated with increased production efficiency in both the real sector and in the service sector. The agency notes that steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, should address several objectives: the formation of new "points of growth" in the economy, the growth of investment activity of business and accelerate technological modernization of the Russian economy.

Earlier, the European Commission published a project of cross-border carbon regulation. The purpose of the project - the prevention of "carbon leakage". From 2030, the EU plans to introduce a fee - a carbon tax - on imports of goods with a carbon footprint. From 2023 to 2025, there will be a transition period in which importers will have to report quarterly the actual emissions associated with goods imported into the EU and any payments for carbon emissions abroad.

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Author: Karina Kamalova

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