The volume of the telecommunications market has grown by 3.2% this year, to 1.8 trillion rubles, according to data from the analytical agency TMT Consulting, which is available to the editors of Made in Russia.

"The volume of the telecommunications market in 2021 exceeded 1.8 trillion rubles. The annual market growth rate was 3.2%, which is one of the highest rates in recent years. The main growth factor was the recovery of the mobile communications market. At the same time in such significant segments as the fixed broadband access to the Internet and paid TV there was a slowdown in dynamics: the growth rate of the subscriber base decreased after the connections during the self-isolation of 2020, and the increase in tariffs was of local nature", - analysts told.

At the end of this year the number of subscribers (active SIM-cards) of mobile communications in Russia increased, according to preliminary data, by 3.3%, to 259 million, such figures were close to the level of 2019 (260 million), according to TMT. Penetration was 178%. In absolute terms, the subscriber base grew by 8 million, the highest in the last 5 years.

Mobile revenues this year grew by 4.4% against 0.9% in the previous year, and broadband penetration was 61%.

"The growth of the pay TV market has almost stopped: according to the preliminary results of 2021, the subscriber base increased by only 0.5% (against 1.8% in 2020) and reached 46.4 million," - analysts said.

The negative impact on the dynamics of the pay-TV subscriber base, as explained in TMT, had an increase in the number of competing proposals from non-operator video services.

According to the forecasts of the agency specialists, next year the dynamics will be influenced by a complex of multidirectional factors.
"On the one hand, the recovery trends in the mobile communications will remain, which will ensure the growth of the subscriber base due to returning subscribers, as well as the growth of ARPU due to the growth of the roaming segment. On the other hand, a number of factors are likely to have a negative impact. In particular, the demand of 533 Federal Law about disconnection of mobile communication subscribers, who did not provide information about themselves, will lead to loss of subscriber base, though the majority of disconnected users migrate from B2B to B2C segments", - experts explained.

Another negative factor analysts called the end of the stage of active connection of socially important objects, which implies a decrease in operator revenues in this segment.

"If the status quo is maintained, the market is likely to maintain steady growth of revenues from communications services at 2% per year. New opportunities in the market in the long term are connected with implementation of 5G and increase of the role of additional ICT services", - analysts consider.

Regardless of this the point of growth of operators' incomes will continue to shift to IT and other non-telecommunication segments, but communication services will remain the backbone of their business in the foreseeable future, the agency added.

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Author: Ksenia Gustova